Well duh.

The Irish story is a fairly straightforward one at heart. Between the early ninetines and the early 00′s an export-explosion and massive FDI (driven by low taxes and a highly educated workforce) pushed tax takes and GDP through the roof. GDP was rising at between 8 and 11% per annum. Ireland was at full employment. During this time, as happens in the natural cycle of any economy, an influx of wealth led to a rise in the standard of living, which in turn leads to a more expensive lifestyle, as the market will pay more for basic goods and services. In other words, you get paid more, prices go up. You get paid less, prices go down.

What isn’t normal is what happened next. From 2000 on, in a haze of wreckless spending, credit-card and overall personal debt soared. People started to spend more than they could afford – a lot more. Suddenly the middle class owned multiple properties whose mortgages were being paid by renters. All of this was fed by seemingly endless credit flowing from the banks – capital got cheap and people got carried away. Around 2001/2002 the FDI slowed to a crawl, and jobs started evaporating….this should have led to an immediate correction as unemployment grew, wages levelled off, etc. Instead of a natural correction however, “Celtic Tiger 2.0″ was born, driven mainly by the construction boom – one of the main drivers of growth in the range of 6% until 2007. It was this false economy that really dropped us into the shit we’re in today.

People spent like there was no tomorrow because they figured the pay rises and property value increases (and remortgaging) would never come to an end. Businesses – SME’s in particular – didn’t worry too much about cash flow because they had generous Overdraft facilities which meant money was cheap, so they could pursue riskier projects to continue fuelling growth. Government, the worst culprit of all, was riding high on a wave of stamp duty and VRT and saw no problem in allowing civil service pay and public costs in general to rise at an obscene rate – in no small part thanks to the various union partnership schemes which saw continued generous pay increases in private and public sectors, with comparatively little new efficiencies being introduced.

In a sentence: People went absolutely fucking nuts and all concept of fiscal responsibility went out the window at every level.

And then somebody suddenly noticed the entire population was balls-deep in debt. The collapse of Lehmann and Fannie&Freddie sent shockwaves around the world. The global credit crunch struck: Inter-bank lending (which was the source of most of that capital being fired around) became prohibitively expensive and the banks turned the taps of credit off. Loans stopped coming. Mortgages stopped coming – things like 100% mortgages which seemed like a great idea at the time, suddenly seemed lethal. The heady days of 16% YoY home value increases vanished, to be replaced by more modest growths at first, and then slumping into the negative equity situation Ireland faces today.

Soaring costs – previously masked by the free availability of capital – started pushing firms (who had in reality been uncompetitive all along) out of business. The construction industry collapsed almost overnight as the credit dried up. Ireland’s international manufacturing businesses evaporated. People stopped buying houses, stopped buying cars, so the tax take collapsed. It was a case of “from feast to famine” – all the money was gone, and as surely as it’s free availability had led to prosperity and wealth for many, it’s sudden disappearance pulled the rug out from under large swathes of the population. The government – after years of paying down the national debt – suddenly saw it jump, erasing almost 10 years of progress:

It got expensive really quickly to do business here in Ireland. And now we are going to seriously get burnt over the next few years as things correct themselves. Wages will drop until it finds a level at which we can stem the flow of unemployment by enticing enough companies to start business here (whether FDI or domestic entrepeneurs). Deflation has already set in – and will continue to push the cost of living down. Like everything else though, it’s a cycle. As the cost of living drops, so do wages, many goods become cheaper to make and buy, which makes exports more attractive.

So who’s responsible? Frankly if you ask any two economists they’ll give you two different answers, but basically everybody – everybody – is to blame:

Reckless Banks: For examples of this, see Anglo Irish Bank. Recently nationalised, it was not so long ago that these guys were the jewel in Ireland’s crown. These guys did what any business does when it’s trying to break into a highly competetive industry: they took the risks nobody else could. And as long as prices were soaring, they were fine. Then once prices started evening off, it became clear their loan book was effectively a lead weight pulling them under. Personally I don’t think these guys did much wrong – outside of the obviously shady stories about massive loans to people on their own board of directors.

Government: Here’s one that gets the blame any time anything goes wrong. And it’s hard to argue. During boom years it makes common sense to save, and during bust years you dip into those savings. Instead these guys just kept slashing tax rates and spending a fortune every year on civil service wage bills. On top of that, they are responsible for the regulation of industry; it’s harder to blame them on this, much of the world was blindsided by the global credit crunch. But really I can’t help but ask what the hell was the regulator doing all these years?

Then we have the extraordinary actions the government did take – underwriting the banks (which for my money was a gutsy and necessary call that morning, and I have a lot of respect for Lenihane on that one). The Nationalisation of Anglo. The pay levy’s. And there’s a lot more to come as Lenhiane & co try to get things back on track; the controversial NAMA project (which may yet be derailed); the further tax increases and cost cutting that will be necessary to stay off the IMF’s radar.

You and Me: Yes, you and me. If you’re paying a ton of interest on your credit card, you’re part of the problem. If you’re paying back a mortgage you can’t afford, you’re part of the problem. This is one everyone seems afraid to say. Tracing the flight away from personal fiscal responsibility is incredibly difficult – I don’t know when or why we lost the ability to manage our own money properly, but a lot of us did. A lot of people tend to lash out at the banks for making it so easy to get credit – but guys, you signed the contract, you read the terms. (and if you didn’t, you only have yourself to blame)

So what happens next?

I’d love to have a big clever paragraph about NAMA and why it’s good or why it’s bad but I don’t. I’ve been researching it and I’m still completely divided about it. Thanks to Obama the European actions half the country is crying out for handouts and subsidies from the government (which will in the long run do nothing but damage to our standing). It’s hard to see any way out of this recession for Ireland, and we’re certainly facing an extended period of some painful decisions and adjustments.

On the other hand – thank God – the rest of Europe and the world is slowly beginning to emerge from recession. Many of the reasons behind Ireland’s explosive growth in the early 90′s are still there – we still have the workforce, the attractive corporation tax rates, the platform for Europe. Sooner or later the markets will correct themselves – wages will drop, and Ireland will become more competetive. The global recovery will certainly help our national exports, and the role of government right now has to be accelerating the process.

Too often this government has chickened out. Let’s face facts: Love them or hate them (and right now, unsurprisingly, most people hate them), FF are not going to be in power after the next general election. I call on them to grab the bull by the horns and make the difficult, unpopular decisions. They’re damned either way – people are pissed, and the people (rightly or wrongly) blame the government. If you’re going to go down, go down swinging – fight the unions every step of the way. Fight the bloated unions. Slash public spending to the bones. Go to war with the HSE if need be – just get it done. Doing it now is preferable to the IMF doing it – once those guys get involved, it really will be just like the bad old days we thought we’d never see again.

None of this will be popular. Most of it will be painted as an assault on the lower classes; of course, every effort should be made to spare those who can afford this pain the least. Of course, The poor must be protected. Of course, The elderly must be looked after. The fundamental duties of government remain in tough times as well as good, that goes without saying.

But true leadership – true backbone and grit, and steely determination – can, I believe, address the serious issues facing the nation without harming the most vulnerable in society.

The premise is simple: Two of history’s well known fighters – or fighter types – are chosen to do battle. Their armament is divided into 4 categories (Long-Range, Mid-Range, Short-Range, Special) and each category is tested to determine a victor. The winner is chosen through a combination of “field tests” and what we are assured is an “extremely advanced game engine which took 3 years to develop” — but which appears in reality to be a simple enough spreadsheet. In the final 15 minutes, we’re treated to a “combat simulation” to illustrate who the winner is.

So it sounds a little dry, right? Some nerd with a spreadsheet and some badly shot fights. The reality is that Deadliest Warrior is inexplicably entertaining. The meat of the show is the series of comparative tests they do on the weapons. Take last night’s episode – Spetsnaz vs Green Beret. The weapons being tested? Both warrior’s grenades. So how can you compare two grenades to figure out which is best?

First of all, you should always try to avoid applying the same test to both grenades. Jesus Christ. Get the fuck out of here, Einstein.

What makes a truly great grenade? (One of the reasons the show is so fun is you find yourself asking weird questions like this all the time). Range of explosion? Damage done? Raw amount of explosives? Fuck that. Like most aspects of Deadliest Warrior, it’s really about whose experiment is the most ludicrous.

For the first grenade they put it in a washing machine and as you watch the thing get blown to kingdome come on a highspeed camera you can’t help but think “surely this has to be the high point of this weeks show”.

But then for the second grenade, they basically put the grenade in a large perspex box (about the size of a shower unit) with 2 full-size mannequins and a dead pig. They blow it up and you watch these scientists/maniac’s pick around the wreckage saying things like “oh hell yea!” and “holy Jesus, look at this head wound!”. Sometimes they hug, and you are never more than 30 seconds away from an honest-to-god non-ironic fist-bump.

I swear I’m not making any of this up.

Onto the panels: Each warrior gets a few experts to ‘represent’ them on the show (this usually translates to using the weapons in a “controlled” environment). These guys are often complete psychopaths. Once you’ve seen a grown man smashing a mannequin to pieces with a shield, screaming the whole time, you can’t help but wonder what went wrong in his life. What horrible sequence of events led to this person existing in the universe? Are those tears on his cheeks as he tries to retrieve that handaxe from the shattered ruins of a gelatin body created to resemble a human? Or is it just synthetic blood from it’s horrible, staring, lifeless eyes?

When the episode ends you are left wondering if there’s any point watching television ever again. Where the fuck do you go from here? Surely it can’t get any better…. and then they show a preview of next week’s show, where a ninja slices through 3 hanging pig-carcasses with one swing of the blade. I mean, guys, you had me the instant that ridiculous narrator opened his mouth “WHO WILL BE, HISTORYS, DEADLIEST, WARRIOR?”. Everything else is just gravy.

Like pretty much every horrible, cheap TV-movie you’ve ever seen, the whole thing should be utterly repulsive. And yet somehow it passes through to the other side – it’s so insultingly juvenile that you just can’t get annoyed or irritated or bothered at all – at best you’re left sitting there with an idiotic grin plastered across your face.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a show like this. And I’ve seen a lot of shows.

Stupid, insulting, and juvenile – and the best show on television right now. You owe it to yourself to switch your brain off and watch this.

Whether it will last two weeks before descending into churlish exaggerations and juvenile blather remains to be seen.